The shipping industry is facing serious challenges in securing green fuels and the necessary infrastructure to meet the International Maritime Organization (IMO) targets for 2030. This organization has set a goal that at least 5 to 10 percent of international shipping energy consumption should be allocated to zero-emission fuels. However, it seems that ship orders and commercial demand in this area have significantly lagged behind.
Analysis of Zero-Emission Fuels Status
According to a report by UCL Energy Institute and the Getting to Zero Coalition, the production of zero-emission fuels such as e-methanol and e-ammonia is relatively progressing, but demand from shipowners and cargo owners has sharply decreased. Based on the September 2026 report, almost no progress has been observed compared to the past two years. This report emphasizes that in many cases, advancements have not only stalled but have regressed.
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Research shows that the production of zero-emission fuels still has the potential to compensate for the lag, but the decrease in demand may squander this potential. Currently, five ships capable of using ammonia are in operation, an increase from two ships in September 2024. Additionally, 41 more ships are on order for delivery by 2030.
Decrease in Willingness of Cargo Owners to Pay Extra Costs
On the other side of the demand equation, the results of a survey of 125 cargo owners indicate that the willingness to pay extra costs for green fuels has significantly decreased. According to this survey, the average green premium that cargo owners were willing to pay dropped from 4.5 percent in 2024 to 3 percent in 2025. Furthermore, the percentage of those willing to pay more than 20 percent extra for low-emission fuels has reached zero.
Economic factors and legal uncertainties are among the main barriers in this regard. Meanwhile, some cargo owners are still spending to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and are seeking to lower their emissions through "book and claim" contracts.
For instance, DP World utilizes biofuel-based services from Hapag-Lloyd to claim a reduction of about 4,700 tons of CO2e emissions. Additionally, GAP also uses biofuel or bio-methanol services from Maersk to purchase reductions on European trade routes.
Ultimately, the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA) collects demand from cargo owners including Amazon, DSV, Google, and Microsoft. This alliance predicts that shipping companies will collectively reduce approximately 120,000 tons of CO2e over three years starting from 2027.
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