Demand for grain transport by Panamax vessels in Q3 2026 has sharply decreased, reaching 27.65 billion ton-miles. This amount is equivalent to approximately 1.4% of the total demand for grain transport in this segment during Q3 of the years 2023 to 2025.
Increase in Demand for Supermax and Handysize Vessels
In contrast, Supermax vessels have seen an increase in demand of 10.15 billion ton-miles, which is equivalent to 0.6% of the total demand in this segment. Additionally, Handysize vessels have also experienced an increase of 1.53 billion ton-miles, which is equivalent to 0.2%.
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These changes indicate significant shifts in global grain trade. The decrease in exports from Russia and Ukraine, the increase in transport from alternative suppliers, and the sharp decline in Brazilian corn exports have had significant impacts on the availability of cargo and the travel distances of vessels.
Negative Impact on Panamax Demand from Brazil
Research shows that the decrease in wheat and corn exports from Russia and Ukraine has eliminated 30.63 billion ton-miles of transport demand. Alternative suppliers, particularly Argentina, the United States, and Canada, have experienced significant increases. Argentina has generated an additional 28.72 billion ton-miles, while the United States and Canada have added 17.03 and 15.81 billion ton-miles, respectively.
However, these increases have been heavily impacted by the decline in Brazilian grain exports. Brazilian wheat and corn exports are 53.19 billion ton-miles below the historical average in Q3, indicating a 33.9% decrease in export volume and an 18.4% decrease in average travel distances.
The weak corn export season in Brazil and the growing domestic demand due to the corn ethanol industry in the country have severely negatively impacted Panamax demand, offsetting much of the benefits from increased grain transport elsewhere.
Serna Piazzo, a senior analyst at IG, stated: "The changing geography of global grain trade has created very different conditions for various segments of the dry bulk fleet. Supermax and Handysize vessels have benefited from changing cargo flows and longer voyages on some routes. However, Panamax vessels have been particularly vulnerable to weak Brazilian corn exports and reduced average travel distances."
Overall, global demand for grain transport has decreased by 15.98 billion ton-miles compared to the historical average for Q3, which is equivalent to 3.4%. This decrease also represents approximately 0.2% of the total dry bulk ton-mile demand globally across all commodities.
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