The decrease in steel loading in the Black Sea is reported due to increasing transportation risks and a drop in production in Russia and Ukraine. From January to September 2026, Russia accounted for the majority of this decline with 3.36 million tons loaded, equivalent to 72% of the total 4.65 million tons recorded. Steel loading from Russia in August 2026 reached 33,000 tons in two voyages, a significant decrease compared to the 553,000 tons loaded in 25 voyages in August 2025.
Decrease in Ukrainian Loadings and Production Challenges
No steel loading from Russia has been recorded from Black Sea ports in September. Ukraine is also facing serious challenges, with a 78.8% decrease in steel loadings in the third quarter to 62,940 tons. Ukraine's crude steel production in September 2026 reached 131,000 tons, about 79% less than last year. Additionally, ArcelorMittal has stated that it is unable to safely and sustainably restart its plant in Kryvyi Rih and has not provided a precise timeline for this.
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Increase in Insurance Costs and Travel Risks
Travel risks and reported insurance costs are increasingly rising. Four commercial vessels in the Black Sea were damaged or sank on October 5 and 6. Additionally, two other cargo ships were attacked near Bulgaria on October 13. War risk prices for commercial vessels in the Black Sea have increased to 0.6% to 1.0% of the vessels' value, while this figure was 0.2% to 0.5% last week.
Market Challenges and Pressure on Employment
Smaller vessels are facing reduced steel loadings and increased travel risks. Smaller ships carried 91% of Ukraine's steel cargoes from January to September. In contrast, Handysize vessels accounted for 37.2% of Russia's steel cargoes. The decline in Russian Handysize employment is clearly evident: steel loading registrations have dropped to 1.25 million tons, and voyages have decreased from 109 to 49. Costs and risks of regional trade are increasing due to rising attacks on commercial vessels and high war insurance prices.
Changes in Demand and Supply
Supply and demand ratios in various markets have softened, with all four D/S (demand to supply) ratios decreasing by 0.01 to 0.02. While demand for Capesize vessels has increased by 0.1% compared to last year, supply has risen by 1.0%. Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, the increase in vessel supply has led to a decrease in Capesize freight rates.
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