Global iron ore exports reached 153.5 million tons in August 2026, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, but showing a 5 percent increase month-on-month. However, iron ore imports to China decreased by 7.7 percent this month, while the flow of iron ore to China only increased by 0.2 percent.
Record Iron Ore Exports from Guinea
Iron ore exports from Guinea reached 3.1 million tons in August, marking the highest recorded level for the country. This is despite the fact that loading in Guinea typically decreases by up to 20 percent during this time due to heavy rainfall. In contrast, iron ore exports from Brazil faced an 11 percent decline due to reduced demand from European steel producers. The largest iron ore producer, Australia, also saw a 5 percent increase in its exports, driven by strong loading volumes and stable demand in Asia.
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Challenges Ahead in Steel Demand
The market outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026 may not be very positive. The new steel import regime of the European Union has introduced new requirements, including a mandate for “melting and pouring.” This will improve tracking of steel-producing countries and limit the possibility of circumventing quotas through processing or transshipment in third countries.
These changes could reduce the appetite of steel producers in key intermediary markets such as Turkey, Egypt, and Vietnam, thereby weakening demand for semi-finished and finished steel from China. This, in turn, could lead to a decrease in the flow of steel exports from China.
Given the high inventory of iron ore at Chinese ports and expectations of weaker steel demand, a reduction in iron ore flows can be anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026. While iron ore loadings from the Simandou project in Guinea are likely to remain strong and may even increase, the decline in exports from Brazil, which is now showing signs of weakness, will complicate this situation.
Overall, the maritime market in the fourth quarter of 2026 faces more challenges regarding demand. While maritime trade has remained relatively resilient, signs of declining steel demand and high iron ore inventories in China point to reduced needs for raw materials. This impact will be particularly noticeable in long-term capesize iron ore voyages. Strong loadings from the Simandou project in Guinea may provide additional supply, but are unlikely to fully offset the decline in Brazilian exports, which could lead to a decrease in ton-mile demand.
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