Panamax vessel revenues for the week ending September 11 reached $21,662 per day, reflecting a decrease of $373 compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the demand-to-supply ratio in this market has dropped to 0.91.
Panamax Market Analysis
The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) fell by 41 points this week to 2,407. Currently, Panamax revenues stand at 96 percent of last year's weekly benchmarks. During this period, demand in ton-miles has decreased by 6.9 percent compared to last year, while available tonnage has increased by 2.1 percent.
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On Pacific routes, P5_82 revenues, related to the long-distance China/Indonesia route, rose by $1,145 to $20,339 per day. In contrast, P1A_82 revenues in the Atlantic fell by $1,273 to $20,077 per day.
Decline in Thermal Coal Flow to China
The flow of thermal coal to China in July and August 2026 decreased by 12.1 percent compared to the same period last year. Import flows from Indonesia have seen a sharper decline, dropping by 18.2 percent and 35.7 percent, respectively. Indonesia accounted for 55.2 percent of the total thermal coal flow to China during these two months, down from 65.2 percent last year.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that global coal consumption will reach 8.94 billion tons in 2026, representing a 1.2 percent increase. Meanwhile, China's demand for thermal coal is expected to reach around 5 billion tons, indicating a 1 percent increase.
However, raw coal production in China fell by 7.7 percent in August compared to last year, reflecting the volatility in this market. Thermal power generation has also faced a 4.3 percent decline.
Overall, despite the decline in Panamax revenues and the drop in thermal coal flows to China, demand for coal is expected to rise in the fall and winter seasons, especially if domestic supply fails to meet consumption needs.
