Crude oil and heavy product exports from the Caribbean have increased by 234 million barrels compared to last year so far this year. This increase is equivalent to 880,000 barrels per day and represents a 45% increase compared to 2025.
Significant Increase in Oil Exports
Given the increase in transshipped barrels through the Bahamas, it is estimated that exports from the Caribbean have added 210 million barrels of new crude oil and heavy products to the market so far. This increase is equivalent to 790,000 barrels per day and has introduced the Caribbean as the largest new source of barrels for the dirty oil market this year.
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Changes in Exports from Various Countries
While exports from the Red Sea region have increased to 1.9 million barrels per day, this increase is due to the rerouting of existing barrels from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and has not added new barrels to the market. Overall, Saudi Arabia's exports have decreased by 1.7 million barrels per day this year.
With the increase in exports from Venezuela and Guyana by 600,000 barrels and 200,000 barrels respectively, the Caribbean's share of global exports has risen to 6.1%, a significant increase from 3.9% in 2025.
The increase in exports from Guyana has particularly benefited Suezmax tankers, while Aframax and LR2 tankers have also contributed to the increase in exports from Venezuela. Overall, Suezmax tankers have accounted for 48% of the additional barrels from the Caribbean.
The 45% increase in Caribbean exports does not equate to a 45% increase in ton-mile demand, and due to a decrease in export volumes to China, the average shipping distance for this region's exports has decreased by nearly 10%.
Regarding the future, Caribbean exports are expected to continue their growth. With proven oil reserves of over 300 billion barrels, Venezuela could become one of the largest suppliers if planned investments and production are realized. Additionally, the development of production in Guyana is also being planned, and according to the International Energy Agency's forecasts, this country's exports may increase to 210,000 barrels per day by 2027.
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