Supply and trade disruptions in Black Sea wheat exports to Egypt and Bangladesh have entered their third month. Ongoing attacks on regional infrastructure have led to a decrease in resource availability. In this situation, exporters are currently in a waiting mode, and Egypt is facing a supply shortage, while Turkey and Bangladesh are seeking alternative sources.
Prevention of Wheat Exports and Price Declines
Tensions have escalated since October 6 with the attack on two commercial vessels, including a wheat ship in Bulgaria's economic zone. According to reports, this is the first attack on shipping in the Black Sea waters of a NATO member country. In September, the average price of the wheat index, known as the Milling Wheat Marker, reached $211.73 per metric ton, down from $219.30 per ton in August. This price decline is attributed to rising transportation costs and ongoing disruptions at ports.
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Forecast for Decline in Russian Wheat Exports
According to estimates by S&P Global Energy CERA, the forecast for Russian wheat exports has been reduced to 32.5 million tons, a significant decrease from 42.5 million tons on September 25. This forecast is based on the assumption of normalizing Black Sea exports by January 2027. Additionally, wheat prices in the Baltic markets have increased due to high demand for transportation to Baltic ports, reaching 10,000 to 10,500 rubles per ton.
Impact on Ukrainian Exports
Since July, Ukraine has become heavily reliant on the Danube route for wheat exports. However, ongoing attacks on key ports and bridges, such as the Zatka Bridge, have created transportation issues. Meanwhile, buyers in Egypt are facing reduced inventories and rising costs, with wheat prices in warehouses reaching 17,200 Egyptian pounds per ton, an increase of 200 pounds from last week.
The impacts of disruptions in traditional Black Sea routes have led to increased delivery costs and limited access to resources. Buyers in Egypt are seeking alternative sources, and private importers in the country are facing inventory shortages and rising costs.
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