The speed of VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) in the Arabian Gulf has reached 12.00 knots, which is a 2.5% increase compared to last week. In contrast, the speed of loaded vessels has decreased by 5.5% to 11.52 knots. This means that empty vessels are moving at a speed of 0.48 knots faster than loaded vessels. These changes affect the inventory of ships and their turnaround time, indicating a faster displacement rather than an increase in vessel capacity.
Market and Vessel Status
The vessel supply index, measured by speed, is 3.7% above its 90-day average, indicating a faster displacement of vessels to various points. However, the slower loading speed, waiting time, and cargo transfer still negatively impact vessel turnover, and there are no signs of improvement in the effective availability of VLCCs.
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In the Western market, the availability of VLCCs has decreased, and the surplus of empty vessels has dropped by 23.7%, but the overall balance at sea has not changed, with a larger surplus in the East increasing by 2.1%. This week, the loading performance among vessel classes has been sharply divided; all four Suezmax routes have increased while five Western Aframax routes have decreased.
Loading Performance and Vessel Earnings
The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) has risen by 32% to an average of 7,625 points in week 41, significantly more than the 2% increase in the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) to 2,388 points. Meanwhile, earnings for VLCCs on the Arabian Gulf to China route (TD3C) have also strengthened, reaching an average of WS1,288, which is 12% higher than last week.
On October 14, the BDTI reached 7,922 points, down from a peak of 7,999 points on October 13. This reflects historically high levels of earnings for oil tanker loading. Additionally, VLCC earnings on the MEG to Singapore route (TD2) have reached $1,412,730 per day, and on the MEG to China route (TD3C) they have reached $1,356,523 per day.
Market conditions indicate that in the West, the number of empty vessels has decreased by an average of 56, while in the East it has increased by 192. These changes indicate a greater concentration of VLCCs in Eastern waters. Furthermore, it is expected that with the increase in Saudi crude oil sales to Asian refineries, existing bottlenecks in marine fuel supply will intensify.
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