Changes in Brazil's iron ore exports in 2026 have been particularly significant in the two main loading fields, Tubarão and Ponta da Madeira (PDM). Exports from Tubarão to China have increased by 6.59 million tons to 40.07 million tons from January to September 2026, showing a 20 percent growth compared to the previous year. In contrast, exports from Ponta da Madeira have faced a decrease of 9.90 million tons to 78.80 million tons (an 11 percent decline).
Analysis of Loading Performance in the Fields
Overall, iron ore loadings at Tubarão during this period show an increase of about 6.3 million tons (+11 percent) compared to the previous year, while Ponta da Madeira has faced a decrease of 10.8 million tons (-9 percent). Investigations indicate that the export performance of the two fields, Tubarão and Ponta da Madeira, is significantly contradictory, with increased loadings at Tubarão and a decrease at PDM.
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Impact of Production on Exports
Ponta da Madeira's performance is directly dependent on the production status in Vale's northern system. According to Vale's third-quarter results, iron ore production in the northern system has decreased to 42.8 million tons, which is 6.9 million tons less than the previous year. This decrease is mainly due to a shortage of raw materials in Serra Norte, while stronger production in Serra Sul has somewhat compensated for this decline. Nevertheless, Vale continues to maintain its annual production forecast between 335 and 345 million tons.
The increase in loading activity in these fields indicates positive developments in Brazil's iron ore exports. During the period from October 1 to 25, the estimated loading volume reached 28.4 million tons, which is a 5.8 percent increase compared to September, but 2.3 percent less than the same period in 2025. This month-on-month increase indicates stronger shipping activity; however, the year-on-year decrease reflects an imbalance in the improvement of exports among Brazil's terminals.
Loading Analysis and Future Plans
According to data from October 28, the loading plans for iron ore at Tubarão and Ponta da Madeira are significantly different. Tubarão, with 67 loading contacts and 13.16 million tons, performs stronger compared to 57 contacts and 14.74 million tons at Ponta da Madeira. Meanwhile, the regular Capesize loadings at Tubarão include 44 contacts (7.33 million tons), while only 24 contacts (4.15 million tons) have been recorded at PDM. This difference in loading needs at the two terminals reflects the different requirements of the fleets.
In November, Tubarão had about 10.7 million tons of nominated loadings, which included 38 regular Capesize contacts (6.32 million tons) and 12 VLOC contacts (3.96 million tons). In contrast, Ponta da Madeira had 11.3 million tons of nominated loadings, which included 25 VLOC contacts (7.91 million tons) and 20 regular Capesize contacts (3.40 million tons). This higher concentration of VLOCs in PDM, compared to the stronger representation of Capesize in Tubarão, creates significant differences in the assessment of fleet employment on Brazil's long iron ore routes.
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