Financing teams are building the 2027 budgets with two fundamental challenges: the need for a defensible number that can remain stable throughout the year.
In the past two weeks, Xeneta has hosted peer gatherings with carriers in Atlanta, Houston, London, and Cologne, and will soon hold gatherings in Singapore and Paris as well. At these gatherings, carriers from various regions expressed common concerns: the annual tender on which financing teams are built no longer aligns with the current market.
Common Definition of Reliability
Carriers in Houston jointly defined that "up to five days of delay is acceptable" on the six-week Asia-U.S. route, while a ten-day delay is considered normal. This issue is evident not only in Houston but also in London, as carriers pointed to two main problems: the lack of a common definition of "on time" and tracking timing flags instead of standard deviation, which truly predicts investment risk.
This gap has led reliability to be considered a negotiation leverage and, at worst, ignored by customers who have turned to significant compensation due to high inventory costs.
Additional Challenges from Subsidies
All participants in the sessions raised subsidies as their biggest complaint. Carriers repeatedly stated that shipping companies rarely disclose the terms and calculations of subsidies. One carrier explained that when asking several shipping companies about the fuel adjustment factor, none were able to provide an accurate answer.
Xeneta's research shows that subsidies for East Asia-Mediterranean routes increased by 113% between February and July 2026, while fuel prices remained stable during this period. Additionally, the costs of passing through the Panama Canal also reflect a similar story, where companies receive up to three times more for the same passage.
Financing teams have clearly realized that the true value lies not only in the tender but also in the execution of allocations, and they must answer key questions to make better decisions throughout the year.
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