The global energy market is approaching its weekly closure on Saturday, October 3, 2026, with a decrease in oil prices. Brent oil has reached $99.56 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has reached $89.22. This price drop occurred as industrial countries announced the release of strategic fuel and oil reserves, somewhat alleviating supply concerns.
Oil Price Analysis and Influencing Factors
In the latest reliable transactions in the global market, Brent oil faced a 2.7% decrease compared to previous days, while U.S. crude oil (WTI) also dropped by about 4%. Specifically, the price of Brent fell from $102.31 to $99.56, and WTI decreased from $92.87 to $89.22.
Assuming a dollar value of 258,465 tomans, the value of each barrel of Brent at a price close to $99.56 is approximately 25,732,775 tomans, and the value of WTI at around $89.22 is estimated to be about 23,060,247 tomans. This conversion is solely for understanding the magnitude of global prices in Iranian currency and does not reflect the selling price of Iranian oil or domestic product rates.
Market Reaction to Global News
The key factor behind the price drop at the end of the week was the sudden change in market expectations regarding the supply of petroleum products. G7 member countries announced a plan to release emergency oil and fuel reserves, which raised the possibility of significant diesel and crude oil supply from strategic reserves. Reports from European negotiations also indicated the release of tens of millions of barrels of fuel and oil.
This shift in market expectations prompted a quick reaction from traders, leading to the closure of some buying positions, which intensified the price drop. Additionally, the release of weaker-than-expected employment statistics in the U.S. in September raised concerns about energy demand strength in the world's largest economy.
Compared to the end of the last two sessions, Brent had risen by more than 4% on Thursday, reaching above $102. Therefore, the drop the following day should be seen as a continuation of the severe fluctuations of previous days. This behavior indicates the market's high sensitivity to news regarding supply, reserves, and geopolitical developments.
The oil market is influenced by transportation risks and supply chain disruptions in the Middle East. However, the flow of oil exports from Gulf countries is improving, and for this reason, crude oil prices may decline, but the fuel and refining products market may remain hot.
China's policy in the petroleum products market is also another influencing factor. Reports indicate a halt in the export of certain fuel products from China, which could have varying impacts on crude oil and fuel prices.
Ultimately, OPEC+ production policy is also considered one of the main variables in the market. This group previously kept the October production policy unchanged, signaling to traders that no major changes in production plans should be expected in the short term.
Read more: Stability of OPEC+ Oil Production in November 2023 · Fatih Birol announced the drop in oil prices after the withdrawal of 100 million barrels
