On September 23, 2026, Brent oil prices fell by $0.82, equivalent to 0.83%, to $43.98 per barrel. This decrease occurred as maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reached its lowest level, and global oil reserves have decreased by about 500 million barrels since the start of the war. Meanwhile, the product market, especially diesel, continues to face severe shortages.
The Impact of Diplomacy on Oil Prices
Experts emphasize that this price drop mainly reflects hopes for diplomacy in New York. Particularly after the diplomatic meetings, the price of Brent crude oil reached $104.03 per barrel. Additionally, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil showed a decrease of $26.89, or 39.1% during the same period.
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The improved supply outlook in the Persian Gulf and hopes for diplomatic negotiations to reduce regional tensions are other factors contributing to the decline in oil prices. Last Tuesday, Brent oil closed below $100 per barrel for the first time since September 8.
Developments in the East-West Oil Pipeline
Saudi Arabia also resumed operations of the East-West oil pipeline towards the Red Sea, which is another reason for the relative decrease in oil prices. This pipeline allows Saudi Arabia to transport about 4 million barrels of oil per day to the port of Yanbu. These developments come as Iraq has also increased its oil exports to over 3 million barrels per day.
According to reports, Iraq's crude oil exports reached 3.2 million barrels per day in August, an increase compared to July, but still below pre-war levels from February.
Challenges in the Energy Market
Experts warn that the drop in oil prices should not be interpreted as a normalization of the market. The International Energy Agency reports that observed global reserves have decreased by about 500 million barrels since the start of the war, with 95 million barrels lost in August alone. This is equivalent to an average reduction of 3 million barrels per day since the war began.
Furthermore, disruptions in refineries and product exports in the Middle East and Russia have put additional pressure on the diesel market. The average retail price of diesel in the U.S. has reached $5.63 per gallon, setting a new record. This price increase directly impacts production costs and inflation.
However, experts believe that if diplomacy with Iran fails again, global reserves will not be able to absorb the next shock. The European Union has warned member countries about a potential energy price crisis and urged them to prepare for winter by curbing demand and continuing to fill gas storage.
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