BIMCO (the Baltic and International Maritime Council) has outlined two scenarios for the container shipping market in 2026 and 2027 in a report. The first scenario is "Closure of the Strait of Hormuz," which assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed throughout 2026 and 2027, while the second scenario, "Open Strait of Hormuz," refers to normal passage conditions during 2027. In both scenarios, it is expected that the supply of ships will grow faster than demand in 2027.
Market Status in 2026
In 2026, the market balance will still be influenced by the rerouting of ships towards Cape Town and strong growth in non-Gulf trade, while some ships remain unavailable in the Gulf. However, fleet growth is expected to accelerate in 2027 with increased ship deliveries and reduced recycling activities.
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Growth in Container Volume
Global container volume has grown by 5.1 percent in the first seven months of 2026 compared to the previous year. Strong growth in non-Gulf trade has more than compensated for the decline in incoming and outgoing volumes to and from South and West Asia. Exports from East and Southeast Asia account for more than half of the annual growth.
Main and regional volumes have increased by 6.3 percent, while return trade volumes have not grown. As a result, demand for ships has once again grown faster than total cargo volume.
Demand Risks and Market Impacts
Risks to demand remain tilted to the downside. High energy prices are putting pressure on consumer confidence in the United States and the European Union, while retail sales growth in China has significantly declined. Experts warn that if traffic conditions in the Strait of Hormuz do not normalize, oil supply constraints and high oil prices could harm global economic growth and container volume growth in 2027.
The order book for container ships is now over 14 million TEU, which is equivalent to 42 percent of the existing fleet, and fleet growth and supply will accelerate in the coming years. Fleet capacity has currently reached 34 million TEU and is expected to grow by 4.6 percent in 2026 and 9 percent in 2027, while anticipated recycling activities remain low.
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