BIMCO, the International Maritime Transport Organization, has presented two forecast scenarios for ship demand in the dry market for the years 2027 and 2028. These forecasts are affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the failure to restore pre-war volumes.
Ship Demand Forecast Scenarios
According to BIMCO's forecasts, if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed in 2027 and 2028, ship demand is expected to increase by between 0.5 to 2.5 percent, while supply growth will be between 3 to 4 percent. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, both demand and supply growth will increase by 1 percent. In this case, demand for non-coal commodities will be faster due to improved economic conditions and increased import demand from Gulf countries.
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Consequences of the Closure of the Strait of Hormuz
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has profound effects on the production and supply of energy and fertilizers, which in turn leads to slow global economic growth and concerns about food security. In 2027, based on the closure scenario, ship demand growth is expected to reach 0.5 to 2.5 percent. However, with the increase in ship deliveries, especially in the large ship (capesize) sector, this market will face challenges.
In 2028, ship demand is also expected to be similar to that of 2027 in both scenarios. However, cargo volume growth is expected to remain limited as coal shipment volumes will decrease. Additionally, the return of ships to the Panama Canal may impact the average maritime distance growth.
Furthermore, disruptions in maritime transport in the Black Sea also pose an additional risk to the market outlook. Forecasts indicate that if the volumes of Russian and Ukrainian wheat that are not transportable in 2026 are exported in 2027, the growth of dry cargo could be weakened by 0.5 percent in 2027.
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