LME Week 2026 began on Monday in London, where industry leaders discussed the macroeconomic outlook for base metals, demand related to artificial intelligence and energy transition, as well as the resilience of the supply chain for critical minerals. These discussions come as the London Metal Exchange (LME) is in a strong financial position, having recorded a 16% increase in average daily turnover from January to September.
Copper Price Forecast
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have provided varied forecasts for base metals in the coming months. Prices will be influenced by macroeconomic conditions, risks associated with Federal Reserve monetary policies, movements of the U.S. dollar, and economic activities in China. According to these analysts, uncertainty regarding specific copper tariffs continues to cause price volatility and inventory disruptions.
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Analysts at this bank predict that copper prices will remain high for the remainder of 2026, increasing to $13,674 per ton in 2026 and $13,210 per ton in 2027. Copper prices have risen 16% since the beginning of the year and have set several historical records throughout the year. Meanwhile, the LME near spread has primarily been in backwardation since July, only shifting to contango in mid-September.
Supply and Demand Challenges
Supply-related challenges remain significant drivers, including production disruptions, mineral quotas, energy contracts for smelters, sulfur shortages, and wage renegotiations. On the other hand, labor tensions in Chile have increased, especially during wage renegotiation talks. In August, copper production in Chile fell by 12.8% compared to the previous year, reaching the lowest monthly level since February 2011. It is expected that Chilean copper production will decrease by more than 5% in 2026 compared to the previous year.
In contrast, aluminum prices have been updated due to improved supply from increased production in the Middle East and Indonesia, as well as the resumption of smelting activities in Europe, with prices expected to average $3,249 per ton in 2026. Aluminum prices have completely erased the supply risk from the Middle East and fell below $3,000 per ton on October 14 and 15.
Signs of improvement in physical aluminum inventories in domestic Chinese markets are also evident. China's aluminum production reached 3.98 million tons in August, increasing to 31.1 million tons so far this year, which is 3.9% more than the previous year. This high production is due to the high profit margins of smelters, which are above the official capacity of 45 million tons.
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