Turkey, India, and Egypt are collaborating to manage the safe transfer of grains from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. In response to increasing insecurity in the Black Sea and attacks on grain-carrying vessels, these countries are looking to establish new security arrangements.
Background of the Three Countries' Cooperation
Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, announced in talks with the media about negotiations with these three countries regarding the reopening of civilian maritime transport in the Black Sea. According to him, these negotiations have led to the drafting of a clear program and document that facilitates a roadmap for the safe transfer of grains. The goal of this cooperation is the commitment of the parties not to attack designated commercial vessels.
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The countries of Turkey, India, and Egypt are working to fairly divide the movement of grain-carrying vessels between Russia and Ukraine. However, evidence suggests that Russia has opposed this proposal and has no plans to accept such a scheme.
Capacity of Ukrainian Ports and Existing Challenges
According to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, the ports of Ukraine have the capacity to handle up to 40 million tons of grain cargo in a marketing season. However, airstrikes on port infrastructure and vessels have severely disrupted maritime exports since August. Currently, Ukraine is only able to achieve 38 percent of its normal export volume.
Turkey played a mediating role in the Black Sea grain initiative signed in 2022 in cooperation with the United Nations between Russia and Ukraine. This agreement, which was in effect for about a year, ended with Russia's withdrawal from the initiative in July 2023.
Political analysts believe that Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, is reluctant to accept the joint mediation plan of Turkey, India, and Egypt. However, this plan could hold significant political value, as Turkey has aligned itself with India for the first time on a common front.
Relations between Turkey and India are naturally influenced by longstanding tensions with Pakistan, and this is the first time India is collaborating with Turkey on a joint political-economic project.
Egypt also plays an important role in this cooperation, as it is directly dependent on food security and grains from the Mediterranean Sea. In fact, Egypt is not just a military power but also represents the Global South and food security.
Thus, the Black Sea is no longer just a matter between Russia and Ukraine but also relates to the food security of the Middle East, Africa, and global trade. These developments indicate that Turkey is facing a three-layered strategy in the Black Sea: preventing the escalation of war, maintaining freedom of navigation, and managing grain security.
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