Maritime trade of oil products between Russia and the United States has seen a significant decline following Russia's attack on Ukraine in February 2022, but it has never completely stopped. According to available data, the volume of maritime trade of oil products from Russia to the United States was about 23 million tons per year in 2020 and 2021. In 2023, the volume of recorded shipments reached approximately 1.33 million tons, and it is expected to decrease to 1.06 million tons in 2024, then increase to 1.28 million tons in 2025.
Significant Decline in the First Half of 2026
In the first half of 2026, the volume of shipments reached 510,000 tons, showing a nearly 30 percent decrease compared to 727,000 tons in the same period of 2025. Additionally, no shipments were recorded in July, indicating a weakening of the trade trend before recent diplomatic developments. These figures suggest that the announced reopening should not be viewed merely as a simple restoration of previous trade, but rather as an opportunity to expand and rebuild existing flows, especially regarding diesel.
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New Job Opportunities in the Tanker Market
From a transportation perspective, these developments could be particularly interesting for the MR sector. The initial shipment of 40,000 tons fits well within the MR2 employment framework, while the proposed program of 500,000 tons in November could theoretically generate about 10 to 13 MR shipments. Most importantly, sending shipments from Russian Baltic terminals towards the Atlantic coasts of the United States could introduce additional job opportunities to a market currently experiencing significant volatility. However, the real benefits depend on whether these shipments truly represent new demand or merely replace existing diesel from Northwest Europe, Canada, and South Korea.
Ultimately, Russia's ability to deliver the announced volumes remains uncertain. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have limited production and export capacity, and Moscow's own restrictions on diesel exports highlight the importance of protecting domestic supply. Although Novak expects the country to return to a monthly export capacity of 3.5 million tons of diesel by the end of the year, the actual volume of shipments heavily depends on refinery operations and the availability of logistics.
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