Global seaborne coal flow in September 2026 reached 115 million tons, showing a 6.7% decrease compared to the previous year. This decline was primarily due to a 14% drop in thermal coal flow, which accounted for 72.8% of the total coal flow in this month. Meanwhile, metallurgical coal (met) experienced a 13.5% increase, but this rise could not offset the overall decline.
Coal Status in Various Markets
Coal imports to India in September 2026 faced a 13.9% decrease, while imports to Japan saw a 12.9% increase. This increase in Japan resulted from a shift towards coal as a power generation source due to high liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices. Japan is heavily reliant on energy resources from the Arabian Gulf, but this shift to coal has significantly isolated the country's energy supply chain.
Future Market Analysis for Coal
It is expected that in October, coal flow to India will increase, particularly due to reduced electricity generation from hydro sources at the end of the rainy season. In this context, energy supply companies will turn to burning more coal, and thus, October may mark the beginning of a strong period of coal stock replenishment. However, due to the growth of renewable energy production, stocks are likely to be rebuilt to lower levels compared to previous years.
In China, domestic coal prices have risen for 11 consecutive weeks, and buyers are turning to cheaper seaborne coal. Indonesian coal supply is facing challenges, and Australian shipments appear to be the best option to fill this gap. Mongolian coal shipments, which are imported overland, have also significantly increased in 2026.
The 6.7% decrease in global seaborne coal flow in September 2026 was particularly due to a sharp decline in thermal coal. Although metallurgical coal has increased, the dominance of thermal coal over total flows has dictated a downward trend. It seems that in the near future, with reduced hydroelectric energy production in India and rising domestic prices in China, seaborne coal flow will trend upwards. Therefore, October may mark the beginning of a strong recovery period in the coal market.
