U.S. dry bulk exports to China in 2026 have seen a 104% increase, attributed to improved trade relations between the two countries. This situation includes coal and petcoke exports, which have increased by 44% and 33% respectively compared to last year.
Status of Coal and Petcoke Exports
Despite these improvements, coal exports are still 77% lower than 2024 levels. Conversely, the increase in U.S. petcoke exports to China has coincided with a decrease in petcoke exports from Saudi Arabia to China. These changes have favored the Panamax sector, where 68% of the export volumes from the U.S. to China have been carried by this type of vessel.
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Expectations for Grain Exports
As we enter the fourth quarter of the year, U.S. grain exports, particularly soybeans and corn, are expected to increase. This rise is due to the harvest of this year's crops and also high demand for U.S. corn, which has been affected by attacks on vessels in the Black Sea, halting Ukrainian exports.
In the future, U.S. dry bulk exports to China may continue to rise. The latest round of negotiations between the U.S. and China resulted in an agreement to provide more favorable tariff conditions for about $30 billion worth of goods in both directions. The timing and reduction of specific product tariffs have yet to be announced, but the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that over 90% of the products covered by this agreement will eliminate all additional bilateral tariffs.
Details of the Trade Agreement
U.S. products covered by this agreement include coal and most grains, but soybeans, which are the largest dry bulk export from the U.S. to China, have been excluded. These products constituted 16% of U.S. dry bulk exports to China in 2025, down from 35% in 2024. As part of the trade negotiations, China has also committed to importing at least 10 million tons of U.S. coal in 2027 and 2028, which is expected to nearly double coal exports between the two countries.
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