Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will reach 38.2 billion tons in 2026, a decrease of 0.4% compared to last year. This prediction is due to the oil crisis resulting from the war in Iran and the increase in solar and wind energy production.
Decrease in Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas
According to research conducted, carbon dioxide emissions from oil will decrease by 1.9%. This reduction is likely a short-term response to the energy shock caused by conflicts in Iran. Additionally, natural gas emissions will also face a decrease of 0.3%.
Increase in Emissions from Coal
Meanwhile, carbon dioxide emissions from coal will increase by 0.6%. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a decrease in LNG (liquefied natural gas) trade and rising prices. Many countries, especially in Asia, have turned to coal-fired electricity generation to compensate for this decrease.
However, researchers have warned that the growth of clean energy is still not fast enough to bring about a permanent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. They also emphasized that a reduction in emissions in one year cannot be considered as the peak of emissions unless these changes are structural.
Glen Peters, a research professor at the CICERO research center, stated that the rapid increase in the use of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind reduces emissions in many countries, but these changes are still not sufficient to lock in the peak of greenhouse gas emissions.
This report was published a day after the start of the COP31 summit in Antalya, Turkey, where UN leaders urged governments to act faster in their efforts to reduce climate change.
