Ukraine's attack on the Moscow oil refinery early Sunday, September 29, is considered one of the largest drone operations since the war began. Russian officials reported that over a thousand drones were intercepted and about 450 drones were heading towards Moscow. Sergey Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, described this operation as the largest drone attack on the Russian capital.
Damage from the Drone Attack
The Moscow oil refinery was one of the main targets of this attack. The facility caught fire and sustained damage after being hit by drones. Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, confirmed that Ukrainian forces targeted an important oil facility and a logistics center in Russia. According to Zelensky, the revenue from these facilities is used to finance Russia's war. In recent months, Ukraine has turned to attacking refineries, fuel depots, and logistical infrastructure deep within Russian territory as part of its military strategy.
Operation Scale and Consequences
This attack coincided with the last day of Russia's parliamentary elections. Russian officials accused Ukraine of intending to disrupt the voting process, a claim that Ukraine has not confirmed. However, the scale of the operation indicates that Ukraine's long-range attack capabilities have reached a level where it can simultaneously affect hundreds of targets and flight paths in various regions of Russia, including the capital.
The attack on Moscow occurred amid significant discrepancies between official statistics and independent assessments regarding the extent of Russian forces' advances on the ground. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that since the beginning of 2026, it has captured over 5,300 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and more than 220 cities and villages, a figure that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) does not corroborate.
According to ISW's analysis, Russia has definitively captured only about 148 square kilometers since the beginning of the year. Even if we add areas where Russian forces have penetrated but do not yet have full control, the total advance of Russia amounts to about 719 square kilometers, which is less than one-seventh of the 5,300 square kilometers claimed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
On the other hand, ISW reported that Ukrainian forces have regained at least 973 square kilometers and about 60 residential areas since the beginning of 2026. The institute's assessment indicates that Russia has had virtually no significant net advance since March, and Ukrainian counterattacks in axes such as Kupiansk, Aleksandriivka, and Lyman have regained some lost areas back under Kyiv's control.
These developments reflect a war in which the main front lines have largely become stagnant, but the battle within the depths of both countries is expanding.
