The postponement of the deadline for reviewing the production capacity of OPEC+ members to mid-November will have a significant impact on the negotiations of this group. This review, conducted by the American consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton, was supposed to be completed by the end of September 2025, but has been delayed due to the lack of necessary data from some members.
Challenges in Assessing Production Capacity
This assessment does not include sanctioned countries such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, which is one of the main challenges facing OPEC+. According to informed sources, the results of this review are not expected to reach OPEC before mid-November. However, OPEC+ still has the opportunity to consider the findings of this report in its negotiations scheduled for late November.
The OPEC+ group includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied countries such as Russia. This group is well aware that the production capacity of each country can affect production quotas and, consequently, global oil prices. Therefore, the review of production capacity is considered a key tool in the negotiations of this group.
Political and Economic Implications
The military aggression of the United States and the Israeli regime against Iran, which began in late February 2023, has had negative impacts on capacity expansion projects in several OPEC+ member countries. This situation has made it difficult to estimate future oil production potential and has somewhat prevented some countries from providing the necessary data for this review.
The aim of this review is to provide an independent assessment of how much oil each member can sustainably produce. This assessment, especially for countries whose capacity is evaluated as lower, may lead to pressure to accept lower quotas. Conversely, producers who have increased their capacity may demand higher quotas.
According to reports, the United Arab Emirates left the group in May 2023 after attempting to achieve a higher quota that reflects its growing production capacity. Additionally, Iraq has also requested a higher quota and seems to be considering exiting OPEC.
