Due to severe restrictions on Ship-to-Ship (STS) transfer services in the Oman Gulf, Saudi Arabia is facing a shift in its crude oil export route towards eastern ports and the Strait of Hormuz. This route change is more related to logistical issues rather than a shortage of fleet capacity and is accompanied by a significant increase in shipping activities in the Oman Gulf.
Increase in STS Activities in the Oman Gulf
Kpler data shows that STS liquid activities in the Oman Gulf have increased from 0.16 million barrels per day in 2025 to an average of 3.7 million barrels per day since the U.S.-Iran war. Notably, on September 26, this amount reached a record of 7.2 million barrels per day. Additionally, the share of oil cargoes in these activities has reached 90% or 6.9 million barrels per day in August.
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However, the STS capacity in the Oman Gulf is rapidly approaching its maximum. Reports indicate that support services at the ports of Fujairah and Sohar are currently operating at full capacity. This situation may redirect crude oil exports from the Oman Gulf to other locations such as the western coast of India or Malaysia. Of course, these longer distances will reduce the efficiency of the vessels and will require a larger fleet of VLCCs.
Need for More VLCC Fleet
In the base scenario, it is projected that the export of 3 million barrels per day of Saudi crude oil will require 36 to 40 VLCC tankers. If additional cargoes are transported via the western coast of India, this need will increase to about 32 VLCCs, and if the Malaysian coast is chosen as the transfer location, this number will rise to 58 VLCC tankers. This means that the farther STS operations move from the Oman Gulf, the greater the need for a larger fleet and lower efficiency will be.
Currently, the western coast of India (WCI) has emerged as the closest option for additional crude oil exports. While STS activities in this region have also increased, it is important to note that additional cargoes are primarily related to clean products and are mostly reaching regional suppliers. However, the increase in STS activities in the Oman Gulf and the shift towards the western coast of India may help free up capacity in the Oman Gulf to allow for the transfer of additional oil cargoes.
On the other hand, Malaysia is also being considered as an option for crude oil transfer. This region has extensive experience in managing large oil assets, and since the onset of conflicts, STS activities there have seen a significant increase. However, the increase in activities here due to longer distances will severely reduce the efficiency of the vessels.
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