Russia's marine crude oil exports in September 2023 reached 4.088 million barrels per day, indicating an 8 percent increase compared to August and a 3 percent increase compared to the same period last year. This information was published based on ship tracking data from S&P Global Energy.
Sanctions and Their Impact on Exports
Despite new sanctions, Russia's crude oil exports have significantly increased. U.S. President Donald Trump signed a law on September 18 that allows him to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on goods imported from five major countries that import Russian crude oil or gas. These sanctions also include shadow ships used to circumvent the sanctions.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced on September 21 that these sanctions do not help improve bilateral relations and are unlikely to facilitate progress in resolving the Ukraine crisis.
Target Markets and Export Changes
India and China are the largest buyers of Russian crude oil. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs stated that it is monitoring the situation and is committed to meeting the country's energy needs. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce also announced on September 19 that it opposes unilateral sanctions that lack a basis in international law, as well as secondary sanctions.
Russia's crude oil exports to India in September decreased by 59 percent compared to the previous month and by 51 percent compared to last year, reaching 816,000 barrels per day. In contrast, exports to China increased by 22 percent compared to the previous month and by 27 percent compared to last year, reaching 1.415 million barrels per day.
Exports to unspecified destinations also increased to 709,000 barrels per day, up from 24,000 barrels per day in August and from zero last year. Meanwhile, exports of Russian crude oil sent for ship-to-ship transfer operations in the Far East decreased to 142,000 barrels per day.
Oil Production and Price Forecasts
Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov announced on September 24 that Russia will produce about 494 million tons of oil in 2026, equivalent to approximately 9.92 million barrels per day, representing a decrease of about 3.5 percent from the 512 million tons level in 2025.
On October 2, the price of Russian Urals crude oil was assessed at $91.85 per barrel based on the FOB index in Primorsk, indicating a difference of $35.11 compared to Brent prices. This difference averaged $29.55 in September, showing an increase compared to the five-year average of $20.79.
Diesel Export Ban and Its Consequences
Russia has decided to extend the complete ban on diesel exports until the end of October. This decision was made based on reports from informed sources and aims to ensure fuel supply for the domestic market. The export ban for non-producers will continue until the end of January 2027, and this date also applies to all gasoline exports.
Exports of Russian refined products in September decreased by 11 percent compared to the previous month and by 42 percent compared to last year, reaching 1.075 million barrels per day. Exports to China decreased by 56 percent, while exports to Egypt increased by 18 percent. Egypt is considered a key hub for reloading Russian crude oil.
