Venezuela's oil trade in 2026 has entered new routes with the reopening and changes in export patterns. Despite sanctions and new policies, these changes have led to an increase in Venezuela's crude oil exports to 1.14 million barrels per day during the period from April to September 2026.
Changes in Venezuela's Crude Oil Exports
Venezuela's crude oil exports averaged 870,000 barrels per day (kbd) in 2025. In January 2026, exports dropped to 667 kbd, a significant decrease due to sanctions and trade restrictions. However, exports began to rise again from April 2026, reaching 1.14 mbd. These changes reflect the market's resilience and its ability to adapt to new conditions.
Analysis of Changes in Destinations and Risks
Legal and trade changes have caused Venezuela's oil export destinations to shift. In 2022, China and unspecified destinations were predominant, but by 2026, the United States emerged as the largest destination, followed by India and Spain. These changes indicate the existence of more traceable and transparent trade corridors.
However, risks still persist. Unspecified destinations and trading hubs like the Bahamas and Curaçao, as well as STS transfers, require scrutiny at the vessel and cargo levels. The shipping network is also changing, with over 560 Venezuelan oil transactions recorded with 189 vessels in 2026.
Changes in vessel capacity are also significant. Vessels that are periodically linked to Latin American crude oil may be transferred to other high-risk corridors. Risk assessment should be conducted at the network level, not just for a specific voyage.
Analysts are looking for various signals to more accurately assess risks. AIS gaps, false markings, and STS transfers are among the factors that need careful examination. These signals may indicate suspicious behaviors or changes in transportation patterns.
Ultimately, there are four key factors for the coming months: permits, destinations, fleet migration, and suspicious behaviors. These factors will directly impact Venezuela's oil trade and the associated risks.
