Goldman Sachs has predicted that if the U.S. imposes a ban on diesel exports, there will be a mild downward pressure on diesel prices. Donald Trump, the President of the United States, supported this ban on September 22, emphasizing that this action could help control prices. As the largest exporter of diesel in the world, this decision by the United States may have significant impacts on the global fuel market.
Diesel Price Prediction
According to analyses conducted, Goldman Sachs predicts that this ban could reduce the average retail price of diesel in the United States by about 25 cents per gallon. This decrease is equivalent to less than 4 percent compared to the current price levels, which are currently estimated at about $6.50 per gallon. This situation indicates that the diesel market will face new changes.
Read more: Iran Emphasizes Its Conditions for Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
Possible Consequences of the Export Ban
Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy Secretary, announced on October 1 that such a ban could lead to an increase in gasoline and jet fuel prices. This indicates the challenges that may arise following the implementation of the diesel export ban. Goldman Sachs also estimates that as the duration of the export ban extends, the likelihood of negative impacts on gasoline prices will increase. This is due to the simultaneous production of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel.
Goldman Sachs emphasizes that as diesel storage capacity is filled, the weekly export ban could increase the retail price of gasoline in the United States by $0.30 per gallon. Additionally, it is expected that such a ban will raise the wholesale price of diesel in Europe by $3 per barrel or about 2 percent. However, withdrawals from Europe's strategic oil reserves may offset about half of this price increase.
As a result, with the lifting of the diesel export ban, the prices of this product in the United States will once again align with global prices. This situation could create upward pressure on diesel prices in the U.S. and downward pressure on prices in foreign markets. Therefore, the global diesel and fuel market will be affected by this ban, and there is a need for a closer examination of its consequences.
Read more: Omid Shakri Emphasized Economic Jihad in the Oil Industry · Increase in Gasoline Stocks in the U.S. to 207.7 Million Barrels
