Philippines rice imports for 2027 are projected at 4 million tons (plus or minus 5%-10%) by Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr., the Secretary of Agriculture of the Philippines, under variable conditions. This forecast comes as the risks associated with El Niño and high fertilizer costs may negatively impact domestic production.
El Niño Impacts and Raw Material Supply
The Secretary of Agriculture of the Philippines announced that as of October 6, the country has received about 4.3 million tons of imported rice and is sourcing another 900,000 to 1 million tons. Additionally, rice imports in 2026 are expected to increase compared to previous years, as the government is taking steps for strategic pre-purchasing and stockpiling.
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Given the heavy rainfall in key growing areas in Luzon, which has been accompanied by 30 days of continuous rain, the current rice harvest situation looks promising. This condition may limit the Philippines' immediate need for rice imports in 2027, although production losses due to El Niño remain a key uncertainty for the market.
Production Challenges and Fertilizer Costs
According to the Department of Agriculture, high fertilizer costs and the impacts of El Niño have put additional pressure on farmers and negatively affected domestic food production, particularly rice. As a result, the food inflation rate rose to 6.8% in September.
The average retail price of urea on October 2 increased to 2,290 Philippine pesos per bag, representing a 34% increase compared to last year. Meanwhile, the price of granular urea reached 2,277 pesos on September 25.
Given the current challenges, market activity for key fertilizers like urea and phosphate has been severely limited. While distributors consider current prices reasonable, small and local farmers still assess these prices as high.
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