OPEC has projected in its latest report that global oil demand will increase to 2.6 million barrels per day by 2027. This comes as the demand growth forecast for 2026 was only 200,000 barrels per day. Accordingly, the average global oil demand is expected to rise from 105.7 million barrels per day in 2026 to 108.3 million barrels per day in 2027.
Details of OPEC's Forecast
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has also raised its forecast for oil demand in 2027 this month. This comes as it has lowered the demand growth forecast for this year. Part of this increase is due to inventory rebuilding, which will help oil demand next year. In particular, refiners, traders, and governments are beginning to replace oil barrels that were reduced during the Iran war.
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In August, OECD commercial inventories were 177.2 million barrels below the average from 2015 to 2019. Specifically, petroleum product inventories were 80.4 million barrels below this benchmark. Oil demand in the OECD is expected to increase by approximately 500,000 barrels per day next year, while it experienced a decrease of 200,000 barrels in 2026.
Developments in Non-OECD Demand
On the other hand, demand from non-OECD countries is expected to increase by approximately 2 million barrels per day. Among these, gasoline is the main product recovering, followed by jet fuel and diesel. OPEC has forecast that diesel demand will increase by approximately 420,000 barrels per day next year, while it experienced a decrease of 190,000 barrels in 2026.
Production outside the OPEC group, known as the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), is not expected to grow to this extent. OPEC has projected that non-DoC liquid production will only increase by 600,000 barrels per day in 2027, while about 100,000 barrels more will come from DoC natural gas liquids and other unconventional sources.
These forecasts indicate that OPEC has a greater responsibility to meet oil demand. It is expected that demand for DoC crude oil will rise from 42.1 million barrels per day this year to 43.9 million barrels per day in 2027, which is equivalent to 1.8 million barrels per day. OPEC's October report effectively describes two very different oil markets: a lack of demand growth in 2026 followed by a recovery of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027 due to improved consumption and the need to replenish oil reserves.
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