Crude oil prices have seen a significant increase in recent days due to Iran's ongoing attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the decline in oil reserves in the United States. In the week ending October 9, crude oil reserves in the United States decreased by 8.56 million barrels, impacting price trends.
Oil Market Analysis
Currently, Brent oil is trading at $105.48 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is at $97.40 per barrel. These prices have decreased from last week's peaks but remain higher than last weekend's prices. The ING commodities team noted in a memo that uncertainty in the Middle East and concerns about the stability of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed the market towards increased price risk.
Impact of Iran's Attacks on Oil Supply
Kpler reports indicate that Iran's attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have severely reduced oil flows. In the week ending October 13, the average daily oil flow decreased to 11.62 million barrels, a significant drop from the baseline of 17.15 million barrels per day. Security risks in the Persian Gulf have significantly contributed to rising oil prices, and recent reports on efforts to control these risks have had no effect.
Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) report on the release of 100 million barrels of oil reserves, part of a 400 million barrel emergency release agreement set for March 2026, has also been mentioned in this context. Furthermore, the former President of the United States has referred to reviewing the reduction of sanctions on certain tankers known as the shadow fleet to lower shipping rates, which have surged due to tanker shortages. However, ING commodity analysts have pointed out the limited access to these tankers and are concerned that they may currently be unavailable due to sanctions.
