On Thursday, September 29, 2023, oil prices remained high despite a reduction in some concerns about supply disruptions. Developments regarding Iran-U.S. relations have become one of the key factors affecting the market.
Oil Price Analysis
According to reports, Brent crude was trading at $98.67 per barrel at 07:04 GMT, up 0.6 percent, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5 percent to $90.09. Brent crude increased by about 14 percent in September, marking the highest monthly gain for this index since July. U.S. crude oil also saw a price increase of about 5 percent in the same month.
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Increased Supply from the Gulf
One of the factors alleviating market concerns is the improvement in oil export flows from the Gulf region. Saudi Arabia has resumed loading tankers at the Yanbu port, and the east-to-west pipeline operations have restarted. Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of the research firm SS WealthStreet in New Delhi, believes that the short-term outlook for the oil market remains influenced by increased supply, as the return of Gulf oil shipments and rising U.S. oil inventories have eased supply pressures.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration also indicates an increase in crude oil inventories. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 922,000 barrels in the week ending September 25, reaching 427.3 million barrels. This increase occurred while analysts had expected a decrease of about 264,000 barrels.
Diplomatic Developments between Iran and the U.S.
Diplomatic developments between Iran and the U.S. have also captured the attention of oil traders. Iran announced on Wednesday that it had received the U.S. response to Tehran's latest proposal for restoring a ceasefire in the Gulf. Sachdeva stated that the resumption of diplomatic interactions between Tehran and Washington could reduce geopolitical risks for oil, although achieving an agreement remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has estimated that oil exports from Gulf countries, including so-called "covert" exports, reached 23.3 million barrels per day last week. This level matches the average exports from the region in 2025. Gulf oil exports have doubled in September, which could alleviate some upward pressure on oil prices if sustained.
