Iran is intensifying its attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which poses a serious threat to the revival of crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf. According to Windward data, in the third quarter of the year, Iran has attacked approximately two ships out of every 100 that have passed through this strait.
Militarization and Security in the Strait of Hormuz
The flow of oil from the Strait of Hormuz is now dependent on the U.S. military commitment to protect oil tankers along the southern route off the coast of Oman. Despite ongoing security risks in the region, it remains unclear how long this revival of crude oil exports will continue. Analysts predict that if an agreement is not reached between Tehran and other countries, the situation will remain the same.
Shuttle System and High Transportation Costs
In many cases, oil tankers transfer crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz to other ships in the Gulf of Oman, which then carry the oil to Asia. This shuttle system helps reduce the risk of attacks from Iran but requires more ships. High transportation and insurance costs add to the burden. According to statistics from the International Maritime Organization, since July, at least 9 sailors have lost their lives, 18 have been injured, and three are missing.
The average crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz in the week ending Saturday were about 10.3 million barrels per day, which is 23% lower than the pre-war level of 13.5 million barrels per day. Estimates indicate that crude oil exports from this strait have averaged between 9 to 10 million barrels per day.
However, high transportation and insurance costs due to the insecure conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have risen sharply. The cost of transporting crude oil from the Persian Gulf to China has reached one million dollars per day for each tanker. This situation indicates that markets have become accustomed to operational complexities and higher costs for continued operations.
Ultimately, despite the increase in exports, navigational security in the Strait of Hormuz has not improved, and Iran continues to emphasize its control over this strait. This situation exacerbates existing tensions in the oil market and impacts oil prices.
