Tanker rates are on the rise, but the supply of the maritime fleet has also significantly increased. According to reports, deliveries in the tanker fleet reached about 7.6 million DWT in 2024 and increased to nearly 19.5 million DWT in 2025. Since the beginning of 2026, about 32.6 million DWT has been added to the fleet, indicating the start of a new building cycle and its impact on physical supply.
Distribution of the Fleet and New Deliveries
Deliveries of MR2 and Aframax/LR2 have been particularly remarkable, while larger crude oil tankers have also seen significant increases. For example, VLCC/ULCC deliveries rose from one ship in 2024 and six ships in 2025 to 31 ships in 2026. Additionally, the pipeline of deliveries will be heavy in the coming years, and the order book for tankers has significantly expanded compared to the end of 2023.
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Age of the Fleet and Need for Replacement
The age of the tanker fleet is a significant balancing factor. About 19.8% of the tanker fleet, based on the number of ships, is over 20 years old, and nearly half of them are over 15 years old. The need for replacement is particularly evident in Handy/MR1 and Panamax/LR1, where approximately 37.3% and 22.6% of the ships are over 20 years old, respectively. Meanwhile, nearly one-fifth of Aframax/LR2 and VLCC/ULCC ships are also over 20 years old. Therefore, the heavy delivery schedule may coincide with the recycling and replacement of older tonnage.
Demand growth appears limited, with maritime oil trade expected to reach about 62.8 million barrels per day by 2027, slightly down from 63.4 million barrels per day in 2025. Of this, crude oil trade is expected to reach about 40.7 million barrels per day, while petroleum products will be below 2025 levels.
Thus, the tanker market is entering a critical phase regarding supply. The key question for 2027 and beyond is not only how many ships will be delivered but also how effectively older tonnage will be removed from the commercial fleet and how geopolitical developments and changing trade patterns will impact ton-mile demand.
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