The price of North Sea Brent crude oil reached $102.58 per barrel, indicating a decrease of 1.63%, equivalent to $1.70. At the same time, U.S. crude oil, known as WTI, was traded at $90.41 per barrel, down 1.18%. This price drop occurred in Friday's trading (October 8) following a reduction in concerns about oil supply in the Middle East.
Oil Price Fluctuations and Influential Factors
Oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations this week due to ongoing disruptions in transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicts in the Middle East and tensions between Russia and Ukraine have disrupted the supply of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel, and especially diesel. This situation allows analysts to present various perspectives on the future of the oil market.
Analysts and Predictions
Thomas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, stated that Donald Trump's claims about negotiations with Iran and the resumption of China's petroleum exports are two key factors in the price drop. He also emphasized that for the oil market to return sustainably to normalcy, a significant revival of refinery activities, a reduction in transportation costs, and filling of petroleum product storage are necessary.
Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, noted in a memo that as the winter demand season approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, the prices of diesel and other middle distillates may remain under pressure. This clearly indicates the seasonal impacts on the oil market.
Meanwhile, China, the world's largest oil importer, plans to resume petroleum product exports after a brief hiatus during the Golden Week holiday. This move will help alleviate pressure and supply shortages in the market. According to analysts, this return could have a positive impact on prices.
Finally, the oil market is also facing challenges from Storm Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico. According to the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, producers have halted daily production of about 1.3 million barrels, equivalent to 62.9% of the current oil production in the region, until Thursday. This production halt could impact prices and create further volatility.
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