Russian seaborne crude oil exports have faced a significant decline, reaching their lowest four-week level in the past month. This drop occurred due to a loading halt at the Baltic port of Primorsk for several days. According to tanker tracking data, exports in the four weeks ending October 18 averaged 3.59 million barrels per day, a decrease of 110,000 barrels per day compared to the previous period.
Loading Decline at Primorsk Port
Total loadings during this period reached 3.13 million barrels per day, the lowest figure since March. During this time, only 31 tankers loaded 21.91 million barrels of oil, while last week, 34 tankers loaded 24.63 million barrels. Satellite images show that Primorsk port had halted loading for about three days during this time, and tanker tracking data recorded no entries or exits. Repairs at the port or in the supplying pipeline likely caused this halt, and loadings resumed later in the week.
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Decline in Oil Production and Its Effects
Russian crude oil production is also on the decline. OPEC's secondary estimates for September indicate that production has fallen to 8.64 million barrels per day, the lowest level since mid-2020 and marking the tenth consecutive monthly decline. Ukrainian drone attacks continue to disrupt Russian oil refining operations. An attack on the Ryazan refinery last Thursday knocked one of its four main processing units offline. These disruptions could temporarily increase the amount of crude oil available for export, although the production decline limits this potential.
Meanwhile, Moscow has made access to Russian energy data more difficult. A decree on September 28 restricted the public disclosure of information related to refinery production, export contracts, transportation routes, and tanker coordinates. On the other hand, Russia began commercial exports from the Vostok Arctic project of Rosneft in September, loading about 250,000 metric tons with three ice-class tankers. Initial exports are expected to average 150,000 barrels per day this year, significantly lower than the project's initial target of 2 million barrels per day.
With the decline in exports, export revenues have also been affected. The weekly value of seaborne crude oil exports has decreased by about $380 million, reaching $2.33 billion, the lowest level in the past six weeks. China and India remain Russia's largest customers, although exports to Asian buyers have decreased to an average of 3.43 million barrels per day over four weeks, down from 3.54 million barrels per day in the previous period.
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