Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have returned to levels that were customary before the Iran war. According to published data, the average daily crude oil exports from this strait have reached 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this week, matching pre-war levels.
Current Status of Oil Exports
This information has been provided by Kpler, a company that tracks tankers and global trade flows. Meanwhile, crude oil exports from the Middle East, including the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, have averaged 19.5 million barrels per day, which is above the pre-war level of about 17 million barrels per day.
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However, Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, has pointed out the imbalance in this recovery, stating that the crude oil market has generally returned to normal while the supply of refined products remains constrained.
Challenges in Fuel Supply
The world today is facing a global fuel crisis, as supply from the Middle East is under pressure and Ukraine is also attacking Russian refineries. Exports of refined products from the Strait of Hormuz have averaged 677,000 barrels per day, down from 3.6 million barrels per day before the war.
The total exports of crude oil and products have averaged 14.2 million barrels per day, which constitutes nearly 80 percent of the pre-war level of about 17 million barrels per day. This global supply shortage has driven diesel prices in the United States to historic highs, posing a serious threat to the health of the country's economy.
In this situation, Iran is also facing a decline in its crude oil exports. According to Kpler data, the U.S. Navy, through the blockade of the Islamic Republic, is trying to force Tehran into an agreement, and as a result, Iran's oil exports have sharply decreased. According to Scott Basset, U.S. Treasury Secretary, Iran will soon send its last crude oil shipments to China.
Iran has also suggested that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States returns to the agreement signed in June. However, the security situation in this strait remains unstable, and Iran continues its attacks on tankers.
In response to these conditions, over 70 percent of the crude oil passing through Hormuz in August has changed ships near the coasts of the United Arab Emirates or Oman. This transportation system is protected by the U.S. military, reducing the risk of Iranian attacks. However, it is unclear how long this system can continue.
The operational pipelines of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also help supply oil. Currently, about 40 percent of the crude oil from the Persian Gulf does not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, whereas this figure was 17 percent before the war. However, these pipelines are also subject to attacks, and Saudi Arabia has recently shut down its East-West pipeline due to damages.
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