The ASEAN region will become a net importer of natural gas by the end of this decade. According to forecasts, natural gas consumption in this region is expected to reach around 180 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2025.
Demand Growth and Production Decline
Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand account for about 85 percent of the region's gas demand. While gas consumption has only grown modestly over the past decade, it is expected to increase by 18 percent between 2025 and 2030 due to the expansion of gas-fired power generation capacity and industrial activities. Meanwhile, gas production in the region, which is projected to reach about 210 bcm by 2025, is expected to decline by about 4 percent.
Infrastructure and Supply Challenges
Increased dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) has exposed the ASEAN region to supply and price risks. LNG imports to ASEAN member countries have more than tripled between 2015 and 2025 and are expected to nearly double again by 2030. More than two-thirds of LNG imports to ASEAN countries are sourced from abroad, with Australia and Qatar being the largest suppliers, accounting for 45 percent of total LNG imports and 65 percent of non-regional imports by 2025.
Maritime bottlenecks and infrastructure limitations are among the main issues. By 2025, about one-fifth of ASEAN's LNG imports will pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and more than half of these imports will need to transit through the Malacca Strait. The conflicts in the Middle East in 2026 and the resulting disruptions to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz clearly highlighted the risks associated with these bottlenecks.
Storage capacity and cross-border connectivity are also limited. The ASEAN region has just over 3 bcm of LNG storage capacity, which is less than 2 percent of annual gas consumption. Although construction capacity to increase regasification capacity is underway, additional investments may be needed to boost capacity in various markets.
Low-emission gases can contribute to long-term security and carbon reduction, but they are expected to remain a relatively minor source of supply until 2030. ASEAN member countries have the potential to produce sustainable biogas and biomethane equivalent to about 65 bcm of natural gas, but current biomethane production is nearly negligible and is unlikely to exceed 1 bcm by 2030.
