Oil flow from the Strait of Hormuz has increased to 9.36 million barrels per day in September 2026. This figure is 3.56 million barrels more than in August and is the highest level since the onset of military conflicts between the United States and Iran in late February 2026. This increase indicates a significant improvement in oil supply from this strait, which had previously decreased due to sanctions and military tensions.
Analysis of the Impact of Tankers Passing with AIS Off
According to data from European commodity analytics firm Kpler, the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz with the Automatic Identification System (AIS) turned off has contributed to this increase. Turning off the AIS makes tracking the positions of ships more difficult, which helps reduce the risk of Iranian drone attacks or ship seizures. Overall, this change in tanker passage methods has contributed to improved oil supply and relative stability in global oil prices.
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Status of Oil Exports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq
Despite tensions and challenges, Saudi Arabia and Iraq have increased their oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has redirected its oil exports towards the Red Sea, but following a drone attack on a pipeline, it appears to be expanding its exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the Saudi state oil company, Aramco, has begun offering oil through auction for deliveries from September to November, which is unusual as the country typically sells its oil based on long-term contracts.
Iraq, which prior to the conflicts exported over 90% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, now has no option but to continue tanker operations from this strait to maintain its exports. The improvement in oil flow from the Strait of Hormuz has also contributed to relative stability in global oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures traded in the range of $91 to $95 per barrel on September 25, which is about 20% lower than the historical peak of around $119 recorded after the military conflicts between the United States and Iran.
Read more: Crisis Management at the National Iranian Oil Company Becomes Smart and Proactive · Cargo Transfer in the Strait of Hormuz with Intermediate Vessels in Two Stages
