On Monday, oil prices reached their highest level in nearly two weeks, primarily due to new attacks on Saudi Arabia and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. These developments have brought the risks of oil supply in the Middle East back into focus, overshadowing the positive impacts of recent announcements by the President of the United States on the market.
Increase in Crude Oil Prices
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil was traded at $93.78 per barrel on Monday morning, reflecting an increase of $1.93 or 2.10% compared to the previous day. Additionally, Brent oil rose by $2.09 or 2.00% to $106.80 per barrel.
Read more: Saudi Energy Minister: Energy Export Capability Remains Intact
Attacks on Saudi Arabia and Impact on Oil Exports
Recent attacks included a Houthi strike on Riyadh International Airport on Saturday, which resulted in the deaths of 13 people and injured over 300 others. Two tankers were also attacked near Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz. These attacks could disrupt the recovery of oil exports in the Gulf, which had reached 81% of pre-war levels in September. The volume of crude oil and condensate exports has returned to 91%, but refined product exports have only reached 60%.
Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Brent oil prices in December from $85 to $90 and estimates that geopolitical risks currently add more than $20 to oil prices.
OPEC Lowers Oil Demand Forecast
OPEC has significantly lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year. Haitham Al-Ghais, OPEC's Secretary General, announced that the group now expects demand to increase by only 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, a substantial decrease from the initial forecast of 1.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year. OPEC predicts that most of the suspended demand this year will return in 2027.
The International Energy Agency has also predicted that we will experience a deeper decline in demand this year, forecasting a reduction of 2.5 million barrels per day for global consumption in 2026 and a recovery of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027.
Read more: Daily Production of Yaran Oil Field Exceeds 21,000 Barrels · Brent Crude Oil Price Reaches $105.45
